Stock Market Valuation Series Part 3 The Yield Curve Model

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My Exclusive Free Workshop The Four P's of Building a Successful Investing Program → https://spxinvesting.mailchimpsites.com • Blog: https://spxinvestingblog.com • / 43384. . • https://www.multpl.com/sitemap • https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/ • Videos Referenced: • Valuation Video Part 1 Miltpl.com: • Market Valuation Series Part 1: Multp... • Valuation Video Part 2 The Shiller PE Ratio: • Market Valuation Series Part 2: Shill... • Is the Stock Market Getting Ready to Crash? • Is the Stock Market Getting Ready to ... • S P 500 P/E Ratio Valuation Update August 1, 2021: • S P 500 P/E Ratio Valuation Update Au... • Stock Market Valuation • Part 3 • The Yield Curve Model • Tools can be used to determine if the stock market is: • Overvalued: Expensive • Undervalued: Cheap • Fairly Valued: Just about right • Current Market Valuation • Yield Curve Model • (10-year Treasury Yield) - (3-month Treasury yield) = Yield Spread • Positive: Bullish • Usually means economic growth. • Negative: Bearish • Usually followed by a recession. • Recession: • GDP declines for two successive quarters. • An inverted yield curve usually precedes a recession by 6-18 months. • Recessions usually produce stock market declines. • GDP • Normal Yield Curve • Current Yield Curve • Inverted Yield Curve • Positive Yield Curve • Negative Yield Curve • Historical spread • Daily observation • Conclusion • The Yield Curve Model posted by the Current Market Valuation website is at FAIR VALUE. • Other Stock Market Valuation measurements show that the S P 500 is OVERVALUED. • No immediate action is necessarily warranted. • However, it is necessary to have a plan developed and in place in case the market environment changes. • If other measurement tools suggest a major change in trend (up to down) implementing a plan will be in order for: • Those who have only long positions (defensive). • Those who participate in short positions (offensive).

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