Japan data

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Increased Age-Adjusted Cancer Mortality After the Third mRNA-Lipid Nanoparticle Vaccine Dose During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan • https://www.cureus.com/articles/19627... • Gibo M, Kojima S, Fujisawa A, et al. (April 08, 2024) Increased Age-Adjusted Cancer Mortality After the Third mRNA-Lipid Nanoparticle Vaccine Dose During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan. Cureus 16(4): e57860. DOI 10.7759/cureus.57860 • Conclusions • Statistically significant increases in age-adjusted mortality rates of all cancer and some specific types of cancer, namely, ovarian cancer, leukemia, prostate, lip/oral/pharyngeal, pancreatic, and breast cancers, were observed in 2022 after two-thirds of the Japanese population had received the third or later dose of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-LNP vaccine. • These particularly marked increases in mortality rates of these ERα-sensitive cancers may be attributable to several mechanisms of the mRNA-LNP vaccination, • rather than COVID-19 infection itself or reduced cancer care due to the lockdown. • Researchers have reported that the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-LNP vaccine may pose the risk of development and progression of cancer. • Several case reports have described cancer developing or worsening after vaccination and discussed possible causal links between cancer and mRNA-LNP vaccination. • Details of the paper • No significant excess mortality was observed during the first year of the pandemic (2020). • However, some excess cancer mortalities were observed in 2021 after mass vaccination with the first and second vaccine doses, • and significant excess mortalities were observed for all cancers and some specific types of cancer after mass vaccination with the third dose in 2022. • During the COVID-19 pandemic • Excess deaths including cancer have become a concern in Japan • Study aimed to evaluate how age-adjusted mortality rates (AMRs) for different types of cancer in Japan changed during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022). • Official statistics from Japan, • used to compare observed annual and monthly AMRs, • with predicted rates based on pre- pandemic (2010-2019) figures • In 2020 • (first year of the pandemic) • Significant deficit mortality for all causes, and no excess mortality for all cancers. • In 2021 • Significant excess mortality of 2.1% for all causes, • and 1.1% for all cancers. • In 2022 • Excesses mortality, 9.6% • 2.1% for all cancers • Number of excess deaths 115,799 • Number of excess cancer deaths, 7,162 • Lung, colorectal, stomach, pancreatic, and liver cancer • Accounted for 61% of deaths from all cancers. • AMRs for the four cancers with the most deaths showed a decreasing trend until the first year of the pandemic in 2020, • but the rate of decrease slowed in 2021 and 2022. • Since February 2021, the mRNA-lipid nanoparticle (mRNA-LNP) vaccine has been available for emergency use, • and is recommended for all aged six months and older • As of March 2023 • 80% of the Japanese population had received first and second doses, • 68% had received third dose, • 45% had received fourth dose • Excess deaths from causes other than COVID-19 have been reported in various countries, including deaths from cancer, • and Japan is no exception • Japan, good data • Large population of 123 million • Availability of official statistics • 80% accuracy rate of death certificates according to autopsy studies • Vaccination rates by age group, the websites of the Prime Minister's Office and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare • Discussion • All cancer deaths: A statistically significant excess emerged in 2021 and increased further in 2022. • In addition, significant excess monthly mortality was observed after August 2021, • whereas mass vaccination of the general population began around April 2021. • There were excess trends in cancer deaths across most age groups. • The significant increases in mortalities for six specific cancer types were unlikely to be explained by a shortage of healthcare services.

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