Unstable endemicity











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Expert predictions rapidly fail, need always to keep up to date with the latest real world situation. Science must be constantly corrected to be consistent with external objective reality. • Symptomatic covid • https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data • US • https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2... • Evolutionary driver • Was • Increased transmission advantage • Alpha, Delta • Now • Immune escape • Omicrons, BA.1 BA.2 BA.4/5 BA.2.75 • Ability to reinfect even those recently vaccinated or infected • Australian Health Protection Principal Committee • https://www.health.gov.au/committees-... • https://www.health.gov.au/news/ahppc-... • Reinfections may occur as early as 28 days after recovery, • People who test positive to COVID-19 more than 28 days after ending isolation due to previous infection should be reported and managed as new cases. • BA.4 and BA.5 associated with increased immune escape, • rates of reinfection rise among previously infected, • and those up to date with their vaccinations • Vaccination continues to be the most important protection against severe illness • English school attendance • 19% of secondary pupils absent, • 8% of teachers off work • NHS • 6 July, 26,874 NHS staff off • Acute and long covid • Stephen Kissler, epidemiologist, Harvard • https://www.theguardian.com/world/202... • The way that the pandemic has played out and is continuing to play out is unexpected • We’d expected strong seasonal wintertime patterns where you don’t see a lot outside those winter months • I would’ve thought it would have reached a steady state by now • It seems the opposite is the case • Prof Peter Openshaw, immunologist, Imperial College London • They are actually becoming more frequent, with one piling in on top of the other • If we let nature follow its course, we will, reach some sort of equilibrium • But it may mean coexisting at a lower level of overall health • Prof Tim Cook, anaesthesia • In many settings, Covid is an inconvenience now, • rather than a threat to life, • but it continues to have a significant impact in healthcare • From a healthcare perspective, the pandemic is not over • Adam Finn, professor, paediatrics, University of Bristol • (UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation) • We’ve more or less given up on the idea of mass immunisation to control the spread of infection. • Vaccinating everyone every three months is just not feasible. • Variant-proof vaccine • Pan-coronavirus vaccine • Nasal vaccine • https://www.principletrial.org/news/t... • favipiravir and ivermectin, still being studied in the trial.

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